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1.
PLOS global public health ; 2(9), 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-2266554

ABSTRACT

Prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is high in rural Bangladesh. Given the complex multi-directional relationships between NCDs, COVID-19 infections and control measures, exploring pandemic impacts in this context is important. We conducted two cross-sectional surveys of adults ≥30-years in rural Faridpur district, Bangladesh, in February to March 2020 (survey 1, pre-COVID-19), and January to March 2021 (survey 2, post-lockdown). A new random sample of participants was taken at each survey. Anthropometric measures included: blood pressure, weight, height, hip and waist circumference and fasting and 2-hour post-glucose load blood glucose. An interviewer-administered questionnaire included: socio-demographics;lifestyle and behavioural risk factors;care seeking;self-rated health, depression and anxiety assessments. Differences in NCDs, diet and exercise were compared between surveys using chi2 tests, logistic and linear regression;sub-group analyses by gender, age and socio-economic tertiles were conducted. We recruited 950 (72.0%) participants in survey 1 and 1392 (87.9%) in survey 2. The percentage of the population with hypertension increased significantly from 34.5% (95% CI: 30.7, 38.5) to 41.5% (95% CI: 38.2, 45.0;p-value = 0.011);the increase was more pronounced in men. Across all measures of self-reported health and mental health, there was a significant improvement between survey 1 and 2. For self-rated health, we observed a 10-point increase (71.3 vs 81.2, p-value = 0.005). Depression reduced from 15.3% (95% CI: 8.4, 26.1) to 6.0% (95% CI: 2.7, 12.6;p-value = 0.044) and generalised anxiety from 17.9% (95% CI: 11.3, 27.3) to 4.0% (95% CI: 2.0, 7.6;p-value<0.001). No changes in fasting blood glucose, diabetes status, BMI or abdominal obesity were observed. Our findings suggest both positive and negative health outcomes following COVID-19 lockdown in a rural Bangladeshi setting, with a concerning increase in hypertension. These findings need to be further contextualised, with prospective assessments of indirect effects on physical and mental health and care-seeking.

2.
PLOS global public health ; 2(6), 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-2258132

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. Thus, we aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria. This was a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from all 37 States in Nigeria between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome variable was mortality amongst persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction. Incidence rates of COVID-19 mortality was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by total person-time (in days) contributed by the entire study population and presented per 100,000 person-days with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 mortality. Findings are presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% CI. The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died;the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of COVID-19 mortality was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98–57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60–20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35–2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11–2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59–3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20–4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26–5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90–12∙54)]. Relative to South-West, residency in the South-South and North-West was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves. In conclusion, the rate of COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria was higher in the first wave than in the second wave, suggesting an improvement in public health response and clinical care in the second wave. However, this needs to be interpreted with caution given the inherent limitations of the country's surveillance system during the study.

3.
Trials ; 24(1): 218, 2023 Mar 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2266553

ABSTRACT

The "Diabetes: Community-led Awareness, Response and Evaluation" (D:Clare) trial aims to scale up and replicate an evidence-based participatory learning and action cycle intervention in Bangladesh, to inform policy on population-level T2DM prevention and control.The trial was originally designed as a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial, with the interventions running from March 2020 to September 2022. Twelve clusters were randomly allocated (1:1) to implement the intervention at months 1 or 12 in two steps, and evaluated through three cross-sectional surveys at months 1, 12 and 24. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we suspended project activities on the 20th of March 2020. As a result of the changed risk landscape and the delays introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic, we changed from the stepped-wedge design to a wait-list parallel arm cluster RCT (cRCT) with baseline data. We had four key reasons for eventually agreeing to change designs: equipoise, temporal bias in exposure and outcomes, loss of power and time and funding considerations.Trial registration ISRCTN42219712 . Registered on 31 October 2019.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Humans , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/diagnosis , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/prevention & control , Bangladesh/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Pandemics , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
4.
Hum Resour Health ; 21(1): 6, 2023 02 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2258131

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers' (HCWs) knowledge of multi-stranded cholera interventions (including case management, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), surveillance/laboratory methods, coordination, and vaccination) is crucial to the implementation of these interventions in healthcare facilities, especially in conflict-affected settings where cholera burden is particularly high. We aimed to assess Nigerian HCWs' knowledge of cholera interventions and identify the associated factors. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire with HCWs from 120 healthcare facilities in Adamawa and Bauchi States, North-East Nigeria. A knowledge score was created by assigning a point for each correct response. HCWs' knowledge of cholera interventions, calculated as a score, was recoded for ease of interpretation as follows: 0-50 (low); 51-70 (moderate); ≥ 71 (high). Additionally, we defined the inadequacy of HCWs' knowledge of cholera interventions based on a policy-relevant threshold of equal or lesser than 75 scores for an intervention. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with the adequacy of knowledge score. RESULTS: Overall, 490 HCWs participated in the study (254 in Adamawa and 236 in Bauchi), with a mean age of 35.5 years. HCWs' knowledge score was high for surveillance/laboratory methods, moderate for case management, WASH, and vaccination, and low for coordination. HCWs' knowledge of coordination improved with higher cadre, working in urban- or peri-urban-based healthcare facilities, and secondary education; cholera case management and vaccination knowledge improved with post-secondary education, working in Bauchi State and urban areas, previous training in cholera case management and response to a cholera outbreak-working in peri-urban areas had a negative effect. HCWs' knowledge of surveillance/laboratory methods improved with a higher cadre, 1-year duration in current position, secondary or post-secondary education, previous training in cholera case management and response to a cholera outbreak. However, HCWs' current position had both positive and negative impacts on their WASH knowledge. CONCLUSIONS: HCWs in both study locations recorded a considerable knowledge of multi-stranded cholera interventions. While HCWs' demographic characteristics appeared irrelevant in determining their knowledge of cholera interventions, geographic location and experiences from the current position, training and involvement in cholera outbreak response played a significant role.


Subject(s)
Cholera , Humans , Adult , Nigeria , Cholera/prevention & control , Cholera/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Health Personnel , Disease Outbreaks , Surveys and Questionnaires
5.
BMJ Open ; 13(3): e069294, 2023 03 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2250950

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore healthcare seeking practices for children and the context-specific direct and indirect effects of public health interventions during the first two waves of COVID-19 in Lagos State, Nigeria. We also explored decision-making around vaccine acceptance at the start of COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in Nigeria. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A qualitative explorative study involving 19 semistructured interviews with healthcare providers from public and private primary health facilities and 32 interviews with caregivers of under-five children in Lagos from December 2020 to March 2021. Participants were purposively selected from healthcare facilities to include community health workers, nurses and doctors, and interviews were conducted in quiet locations at facilities. A data-driven reflexive thematic analysis according to Braun and Clark was conducted. FINDINGS: Two themes were developed: appropriating COVID-19 in belief systems, and ambiguity about COVID-19 preventive measures. The interpretation of COVID-19 ranged from fearful to considering it as a 'scam' or 'falsification from the government'. Underlying distrust in government fuelled COVID-19 misperceptions. Care seeking for children under five was affected, as facilities were seen as contagious places for COVID-19. Caregivers resorted to alternative care and self-management of childhood illnesses. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was a major concern among healthcare providers compared with community members at the time of vaccine roll-out in Lagos, Nigeria. Indirect impacts of COVID-19 lockdown included diminished household income, worsening food insecurity, mental health challenges for caregivers and reduced clinic visits for immunisation. CONCLUSION: The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lagos was associated with reductions in care seeking for children, clinic attendance for childhood immunisations and household income. Strengthening health and social support systems with context-specific interventions and correcting misinformation is crucial to building adaptive capacity for response to future pandemics. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12621001071819.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Child , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , Pandemics/prevention & control , Nigeria/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Ambulatory Care Facilities , Community Health Workers
8.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 2(9): e0001110, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2098679

ABSTRACT

Prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is high in rural Bangladesh. Given the complex multi-directional relationships between NCDs, COVID-19 infections and control measures, exploring pandemic impacts in this context is important. We conducted two cross-sectional surveys of adults ≥30-years in rural Faridpur district, Bangladesh, in February to March 2020 (survey 1, pre-COVID-19), and January to March 2021 (survey 2, post-lockdown). A new random sample of participants was taken at each survey. Anthropometric measures included: blood pressure, weight, height, hip and waist circumference and fasting and 2-hour post-glucose load blood glucose. An interviewer-administered questionnaire included: socio-demographics; lifestyle and behavioural risk factors; care seeking; self-rated health, depression and anxiety assessments. Differences in NCDs, diet and exercise were compared between surveys using chi2 tests, logistic and linear regression; sub-group analyses by gender, age and socio-economic tertiles were conducted. We recruited 950 (72.0%) participants in survey 1 and 1392 (87.9%) in survey 2. The percentage of the population with hypertension increased significantly from 34.5% (95% CI: 30.7, 38.5) to 41.5% (95% CI: 38.2, 45.0; p-value = 0.011); the increase was more pronounced in men. Across all measures of self-reported health and mental health, there was a significant improvement between survey 1 and 2. For self-rated health, we observed a 10-point increase (71.3 vs 81.2, p-value = 0.005). Depression reduced from 15.3% (95% CI: 8.4, 26.1) to 6.0% (95% CI: 2.7, 12.6; p-value = 0.044) and generalised anxiety from 17.9% (95% CI: 11.3, 27.3) to 4.0% (95% CI: 2.0, 7.6; p-value<0.001). No changes in fasting blood glucose, diabetes status, BMI or abdominal obesity were observed. Our findings suggest both positive and negative health outcomes following COVID-19 lockdown in a rural Bangladeshi setting, with a concerning increase in hypertension. These findings need to be further contextualised, with prospective assessments of indirect effects on physical and mental health and care-seeking.

9.
BMJ Open ; 12(9): e063703, 2022 09 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2064169

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Nigeria reported an upsurge in cholera cases in October 2020, which then transitioned into a large, disseminated epidemic for most of 2021. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology, diagnostic performance of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits and the factors associated with mortality during the epidemic. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of national surveillance data. SETTING: 33 of 37 states (including the Federal Capital Territory) in Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Persons who met cholera case definition (a person of any age with acute watery diarrhoea, with or without vomiting) between October 2020 and October 2021 within the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control surveillance data. OUTCOME MEASURES: Attack rate (AR; per 100 000 persons), case fatality rate (CFR; %) and accuracy of RDT performance compared with culture using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, individual factors associated with cholera deaths and hospitalisation were presented as adjusted OR with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, 93 598 cholera cases and 3298 deaths (CFR: 3.5%) were reported across 33 of 37 states in Nigeria within the study period. The proportions of cholera cases were higher in men aged 5-14 years and women aged 25-44 years. The overall AR was 46.5 per 100 000 persons. The North-West region recorded the highest AR with 102 per 100 000. Older age, male gender, residency in the North-Central region and severe dehydration significantly increased the odds of cholera deaths. The cholera RDT had excellent diagnostic accuracy (AUROC=0.91; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Cholera remains a serious public health threat in Nigeria with a high mortality rate. Thus, we recommend making RDT kits more widely accessible for improved surveillance and prompt case management across the country.


Subject(s)
Cholera , Epidemics , Cholera/diagnosis , Cholera/epidemiology , Diarrhea/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Female , Humans , Male , Nigeria/epidemiology , Reagent Kits, Diagnostic , Retrospective Studies
10.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 2(6): e0000169, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2021474

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. Thus, we aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria. This was a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from all 37 States in Nigeria between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome variable was mortality amongst persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction. Incidence rates of COVID-19 mortality was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by total person-time (in days) contributed by the entire study population and presented per 100,000 person-days with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 mortality. Findings are presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% CI. The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died; the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of COVID-19 mortality was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98-57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60-20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35-2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11-2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59-3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20-4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26-5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90-12∙54)]. Relative to South-West, residency in the South-South and North-West was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves. In conclusion, the rate of COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria was higher in the first wave than in the second wave, suggesting an improvement in public health response and clinical care in the second wave. However, this needs to be interpreted with caution given the inherent limitations of the country's surveillance system during the study.

11.
Bull World Health Organ ; 100(5): 302-314B, 2022 May 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1938580

ABSTRACT

Objective: To investigate survival in children referred from primary care in Malawi, with a focus on hypoglycaemia and hypoxaemia progression. Methods: The study involved a prospective cohort of children aged 12 years or under referred from primary health-care facilities in Mchinji district, Malawi in 2019 and 2020. Peripheral blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) and blood glucose were measured at recruitment and on arrival at a subsequent health-care facility (i.e. four hospitals and 14 primary health-care facilities). Children were followed up 2 weeks after discharge or their last clinical visit. The primary study outcome was the case fatality ratio at 2 weeks. Associations between SpO2 and blood glucose levels and death were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models and the treatment effect of hospitalization was assessed using propensity score matching. Findings: Of 826 children recruited, 784 (94.9%) completed follow-up. At presentation, hypoxaemia was moderate (SpO2: 90-93%) in 13.1% (108/826) and severe (SpO2: < 90%) in 8.6% (71/826) and hypoglycaemia was moderate (blood glucose: 2.5-4.0 mmol/L) in 9.0% (74/826) and severe (blood glucose: < 2.5 mmol/L) in 2.3% (19/826). The case fatality ratio was 3.7% (29/784) overall but 26.3% (5/19) in severely hypoglycaemic children and 12.7% (9/71) in severely hypoxaemic children. Neither moderate hypoglycaemia nor moderate hypoxaemia was associated with mortality. Conclusion: Presumptive pre-referral glucose treatment and better management of hypoglycaemia could reduce the high case fatality ratio observed in children with severe hypoglycaemia. The morbidity and mortality burden of severe hypoxaemia was high; ways of improving hypoxaemia identification and management are needed.


Subject(s)
Blood Glucose , Hypoglycemia , Child , Cohort Studies , Humans , Hypoxia/etiology , Hypoxia/therapy , Prospective Studies , Referral and Consultation
12.
BMJ Open ; 12(5): e058901, 2022 05 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1891834

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this evaluation is to understand whether introducing stabilisation rooms equipped with pulse oximetry and oxygen systems to frontline health facilities in Ikorodu, Lagos State, alongside healthcare worker (HCW) training improves the quality of care for children with pneumonia aged 0-59 months. We will explore to what extent, how, for whom and in what contexts the intervention works. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Quasi-experimental time-series impact evaluation with embedded mixed-methods process and economic evaluation. SETTING: seven government primary care facilities, seven private health facilities, two government secondary care facilities. TARGET POPULATION: children aged 0-59 months with clinically diagnosed pneumonia and/or suspected or confirmed COVID-19. INTERVENTION: 'stabilisation rooms' within participating primary care facilities in Ikorodu local government area, designed to allow for short-term oxygen delivery for children with hypoxaemia prior to transfer to hospital, alongside HCW training on integrated management of childhood illness, pulse oximetry and oxygen therapy, immunisation and nutrition. Secondary facilities will also receive training and equipment for oxygen and pulse oximetry to ensure minimum standard of care is available for referred children. PRIMARY OUTCOME: correct management of hypoxaemic pneumonia including administration of oxygen therapy, referral and presentation to hospital. SECONDARY OUTCOME: 14-day pneumonia case fatality rate. Evaluation period: August 2020 to September 2022. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval from University of Ibadan, Lagos State and University College London. Ongoing engagement with government and other key stakeholders during the project. Local dissemination events will be held with the State Ministry of Health at the end of the project (December 2022). We will publish the main impact results, process evaluation and economic evaluation results as open-access academic publications in international journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12621001071819; Registered on the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pneumonia , Australia , Child, Preschool , Hospitals , Humans , Hypoxia/complications , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Nigeria , Oximetry , Oxygen/therapeutic use , Pneumonia/complications
13.
J Glob Health ; 12: 05007, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1771701

ABSTRACT

Background: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of infectious deaths in children under-five globally. We update the research priorities for childhood pneumonia in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and explore whether previous priorities have been addressed. Methods: We conducted an eDelphi study from November 2019 to June 2021. Experts were invited to take part, targeting balance by: gender, profession, and high (HIC) and low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). We followed a three-stage approach: 1. Collating questions, using a list published in 2011 and adding newly posed topics; 2. Narrowing down, through participant scoring on importance and whether they had been answered; 3. Ranking of retained topics. Topics were categorized into: prevent and protect, diagnosis, treatment and cross-cutting. Results: Overall 379 experts were identified, and 108 took part. We started with 83 topics, and 81 further general and 40 COVID-19 specific topics were proposed. In the final ranking 101 topics were retained, and the highest ranked was to "explore interventions to prevent neonatal pneumonia". Among the top 20 topics, epidemiological research and intervention evaluation was commonly prioritized, followed by the operational and implementation research. Two COVID-19 related questions were ranked within the top 20. There were clear differences in priorities between HIC and LMIC respondents, and academics vs non-academics. Conclusions: Operational research on health system capacities, and evaluating optimized delivery of existing treatments, diagnostics and case management approaches are needed. This list should act as a catalyst for collaborative research, especially to meet the top priority in preventing neonatal pneumonia, and encourage multi-disciplinary partnerships.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Child , Health Priorities , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Pandemics , Poverty , Research , SARS-CoV-2
14.
Trials ; 23(1): 95, 2022 Jan 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1662421

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Child mortality remains unacceptably high, with Northern Nigeria reporting some of the highest rates globally (e.g. 192/1000 live births in Jigawa State). Coverage of key protect and prevent interventions, such as vaccination and clean cooking fuel use, is low. Additionally, knowledge, care-seeking and health system factors are poor. Therefore, a whole systems approach is needed for sustainable reductions in child mortality. METHODS: This is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with integrated process and economic evaluations, conducted from January 2021 to September 2022. The trial will be conducted in Kiyawa Local Government Area, Jigawa State, Nigeria, with an estimated population of 230,000. Clusters are defined as primary government health facility catchment areas (n = 33). The 33 clusters will be randomly allocated (1:1) in a public ceremony, and 32 clusters included in the impact evaluation. The trial will evaluate a locally adapted 'whole systems strengthening' package of three evidence-based methods: community men's and women's groups, Partnership Defined Quality Scorecard and healthcare worker training, mentorship and provision of basic essential equipment and commodities. The primary outcome is mortality of children aged 7 days to 59 months. Mortality will be recorded prospectively using a cohort design, and secondary outcomes measured through baseline and endline cross-sectional surveys. Assuming the following, we will have a minimum detectable effect size of 30%: (a) baseline mortality of 100 per 1000 livebirths, (b) 4480 compounds with 3 eligible children per compound, (c) 80% power, (d) 5% significance, (e) intra-cluster correlation of 0.007 and (f) coefficient of variance of cluster size of 0.74. Analysis will be by intention-to-treat, comparing intervention and control clusters, adjusting for compound and trial clustering. DISCUSSION: This study will provide robust evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based participatory learning and action, with integrated health system strengthening and accountability mechanisms, to reduce child mortality. The ethnographic process evaluation will allow for a rich understanding of how the intervention works in this context. However, we encountered a key challenge in calculating the sample size, given the lack of timely and reliable mortality data and the uncertain impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 39213655 . Registered on 11 December 2019.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases , Child , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Infant Mortality , Male , Maternal Mortality , Nigeria , Pandemics , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , SARS-CoV-2
15.
BMJ Open ; 11(9): e049699, 2021 09 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1394114

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria. DESIGN: Predictive modelling study. SETTING: All Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18-64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians' judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , Aged , COVID-19 Testing , Child , Cohort Studies , Humans , Nigeria , SARS-CoV-2
16.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(8)2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1341320

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted global oxygen system deficiencies and revealed gaps in how we understand and measure 'oxygen access'. We present a case study on oxygen access from 58 health facilities in Lagos state, Nigeria. We found large differences in oxygen access between facilities (primary vs secondary, government vs private) and describe three key domains to consider when measuring oxygen access: availability, cost, use. Of 58 facilities surveyed, 8 (14%) of facilities had a functional pulse oximeter. Oximeters (N=27) were typically located in outpatient clinics (12/27, 44%), paediatric ward (6/27, 22%) or operating theatre (4/27, 15%). 34/58 (59%) facilities had a functional source of oxygen available on the day of inspection, of which 31 (91%) facilities had it available in a single ward area, typically the operating theatre or maternity ward. Oxygen services were free to patients at primary health centres, when available, but expensive in hospitals and private facilities, with the median cost for 2 days oxygen 13 000 (US$36) and 27 500 (US$77) Naira, respectively. We obtained limited data on the cost of oxygen services to facilities. Pulse oximetry use was low in secondary care facilities (32%, 21/65 patients had SpO2 documented) and negligible in private facilities (2%, 3/177) and primary health centres (<1%, 2/608). We were unable to determine the proportion of hypoxaemic patients who received oxygen therapy with available data. However, triangulation of existing data suggested that no facilities were equipped to meet minimum oxygen demands. We highlight the importance of a multifaceted approach to measuring oxygen access that assesses access at the point-of-care and ideally at the patient-level. We propose standard metrics to report oxygen access and describe how these can be integrated into routine health information systems and existing health facility assessment tools.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Oxygen , Child , Female , Health Facilities , Humans , Nigeria , Pandemics , Pregnancy , SARS-CoV-2
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